What is expected value in betting?
Expected value (EV) is the average result you would get from a bet if you could place it many times over. A positive EV bet makes money in the long run; a negative EV bet loses money. It is the single most important concept in profitable betting.
Enter the odds, your honest estimate of the true win probability, and your stake. The calculator shows the dollar EV, the EV as a percentage of your stake, and the break-even probability the odds require.
Frequently asked questions
What is a +EV bet?
A bet where your true win probability is higher than the probability implied by the odds. Placed consistently, +EV bets generate a profit over time.
How do I estimate the true win probability?
You can use your own handicapping, a statistical model, or no-vig market odds from a sharp sportsbook. Your EV result is only as accurate as that probability estimate.