Free betting calculator

Expected Value Calculator

Find out whether a bet is profitable long-term by comparing your win estimate against the odds.

Odds input format

Odds

Your true win probability (%)

Stake ($)

Expected value

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EV %

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Break-even probability

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What is expected value in betting?

Expected value (EV) is the average result of a bet if you could place it many times over. Positive EV bets make money long-term; negative EV bets lose it. It is the single most important concept in profitable betting. A reliable way to estimate your true win probability is to take the no-vig fair odds from a sharp market — our no-vig calculator does exactly that.

Worked example

You bet $100 at +110 (decimal 2.10). You believe the true win chance is 52%.

Profit if it wins = $100 × 1.10 = $110.

EV = (0.52 × $110) − (0.48 × $100) = $57.20 − $48.00.

Result: +$9.20 EV, or +9.2% — a profitable bet, because 52% beats the 47.6% break-even rate the odds imply.

Frequently asked questions

What is a +EV bet?

A bet where your true win probability is higher than the probability implied by the odds. Placed consistently, +EV bets generate profit over time.

How do I estimate the true win probability?

Use your own handicapping, a model, or the no-vig fair odds from a sharp sportsbook. Your EV result is only as good as that estimate.

Is a single +EV bet guaranteed to win?

No. EV describes the long-run average. Any individual bet can still lose — the edge only shows over a large sample.